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Is the worst behind Pakistan’s economy?

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ISLAMABAD:

While it remains too early to assert definitively, several indicators suggest that Pakistan’s economy may have weathered the worst of its recent challenges.

There were serious concerns that due to the IMF’s push for easing import controls and letting the exchange rate float, the rupee may see further free fall. However, after hitting a record low of Rs335 on September 5, the rupee is regaining ground, stabilising at approximately Rs292 to the US dollar, a level where the caretakers inherited.

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Foreign exchange reserves have surged past $13 billion, including $5.5 billion held by commercial banks. Even with a notable spike in fuel prices, the inflation rate has slowed and now stands at 27.4%.

As caretaker federal ministers take charge of their respective ministries, they face a daunting task. The latest entrant, the federal minister for privatisation, rightly directs attention towards Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) and Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM), the two ailing state enterprises that have consistently incurred heavy losses with no resolution.

Read Economy’s four ticking bombs

Though still operational, PIA reports monthly losses of Rs13 billion, while PSM, shuttered since 2015, continues to pay salaries to around 3,100 employees. The sustainability of the recent financial support to PIA raises questions about its alignment with taxpayers’ interests, but the intensity of finding a solution is a worthwhile effort.

The minister for power has been grappling with public outrage over the exorbitant electricity bills received in August. Having chaired the 2019 inquiry committee on the power sector, he possesses insights into necessary measures for enhancing energy sector efficiency.

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While commendable efforts are being made to enforce anti-theft measures for electricity and gas, it is equally crucial to implement some of the routine recommendations outlined in the committee’s report. Interestingly, despite the commissions’ suggestion for expertise-driven leadership in the power ministry, the government is reportedly contemplating going in the opposite direction by appointing bureaucrats as chief executive officers to head various power companies.

Read more ‘Interim govt’s measures will stabilise economy’

Meanwhile, the minister for commerce and industries is vigorously pursuing ambitious goals, including a more than 35% increase in short-term exports. For years, successive governments have been fixing lofty export targets but have not undertaken any serious reforms.

As a result, those targets remain on paper, and exports have barely increased for the last 15 years. On the other hand, Pakistan’s share in global markets has been declining annually by about 1.45%.

Further, no attention was given to widening the export basket as most non-textile industries were content with selling in the protected domestic market.

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Considering the current economic landscape and IMF-imposed conditions, giving subsidies would be impossible. Concerns linger that the government may opt for a populist route by seeking more import taxes to appease the powerful groups. This measure would significantly undo any efforts to curb smuggling and bring the economy to the formal sector.

In a broader context, the caretaker government’s primary focus is on facilitating the promised influx of $30 to $50 billion in foreign investment over the next three to four years.

The previous administration expressed optimism that this investment could significantly enhance productivity and transform barren lands into arable farmland. Anticipation surrounds the potential for Pakistan to achieve self-reliance in food production, saving approximately $10 billion in foreign exchange and doubling current food exports from $5 billion to $10 billion.

Further read PkMAP calls for moot on economy

However, it is imperative to recognise that while beneficial, foreign investment and short-term enforcement measures do not constitute long-term solutions. Successful transitions from aid-dependent to export-led growth, as observed in numerous developing countries, hinge on significant taxation and trade policy reforms.

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The significance of an independent and efficient judiciary has also played a crucial role in implementing economic reforms in many developing countries. In this context, the new chief justice’s stance against judicial activism should be viewed as a breath of fresh air.

In conclusion, Pakistan’s economic woes may be gradually giving way to a new chapter. The caretaker government’s effectiveness in doing the groundwork for addressing the most pressing challenges – state-owned enterprise reforms, exchange rate stability, trade policy reforms and facilitating the planned inward investment – will be greatly helpful for the incoming government.

While the path ahead may be fraught with difficulties, putting the country on outward-oriented economic policies is vital for getting out of the current economic meltdown.

The writer currently serves as a trade arbitrator for WTO. Previously, he has served as Pakistan’s ambassador to WTO and FAO’s representative to the United Nations at Geneva

 

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Published in The Express Tribune, September 25th, 2023.

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Remittances slow down to $2.25b

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KARACHI:

The remittances sent home by overseas Pakistanis slowed down to $2.25 billion in November 2023 partly due to the return of volatility in rupee-dollar exchange rate in the first half of the month and partly because of a global economic slowdown.

The remittances dropped from a seven-month high of $2.46 billion reached in October 2023.

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State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) data on Friday showed that the inflow of workers’ remittances decreased 9% to $2.25 billion in November compared to $2.46 billion in October.

The inflows, however, improved 4% when compared with the remittances of $2.17 billion received in the same month of last year.

Overall, in the first five months (Jul-Nov) of current fiscal year, the remittances dipped 10% to $11.05 billion compared to $12.32 billion in the same period of last year.

Data breakdown showed that inflows from Saudi Arabia decreased 12% to $540 million in November compared to $617 million in the prior month.

Expatriate Pakistanis sent home $409 million from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which was 14% lower compared to $474 million in October.

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Non-resident Pakistanis sent $268 million from European Union member countries, which was 10% less than $298 million received in the previous month.

Remittances from the United States dropped 8% to $261 million compared to $283 million in the previous month.

Read: SBP brings incentives to attract remittances

Inflows from other countries decreased 7% to $429 million compared to $461 million last month.

UK was the only source from where remittances improved in November, which went up 3% to $342 million compared to $330 million in the previous month.

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Earlier, the return of volatility in rupee-dollar exchange rate in the first two weeks of November had encouraged the illegal Hawala-Hundi network operators to re-emerge in the border areas of Afghanistan and in the Middle Eastern countries.

They offer higher prices to Pakistani expatriates for sending their foreign currency earnings back home, leading to a decline in the inflow of remittances through official channels.

In addition, the global economic slowdown has reduced the capacity of overseas Pakistanis to send more money to their family members and relatives in the country, partly resulting in a reduction in official inflows.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 9th, 2023.

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Textile industry unveils $50b export plan

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ISLAMABAD:

The textile industry has submitted an ambitious plan to the government for achieving a $50 billion export target as it comes up with a set of recommendations for removing barriers and providing incentives to extend the outreach in international markets.

The industry has proposed the setting up of 1,000 garment plants on a fast track to create exportable surplus and diversify the export basket. Each plant will consist of 500 stitching machines with an investment of $5 million, produce garments to make exports of $20 million per annum and generate 1,000 jobs.

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In a presentation given to the Export Advisory Council for Textiles, the industry proposed a “no-cost-no-commitment” incentive package, featuring proposals such as free office spaces for international brands and retailers to encourage their physical presence in Pakistan.

It pointed out that the cost of first six months would be covered through upfront financing from the Export Development Fund along with a rebate of 0.1% of the sourcing value for firms acquiring merchandise worth over $50 million from Pakistan.

It was highlighted that the US fashion industry was shifting from a strategy called “China plus Vietnam plus many” to a new system named “Asia plus rest of the world”. Finding new sources for textile products other than China is a top priority of the US fashion firms.

Some firms were of the view that “Made in China” would gradually become “Managed by China” as Chinese manufacturers were looking at the possibility of outsourcing production. This presents opportunities to Pakistan as well as it can directly supply goods to international firms and also cater to the needs of Chinese companies looking to outsource production.

Textile companies are expected to increasingly source clothing made from recycled or other sustainable fibres. As many as 60% of firms plan to sustainably increase the sourcing of apparel made from sustainable or recycled textile materials over the next five years.

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Demand for cotton and other sustainable fabrics is likely to rise compared to the less sustainable and biodegradable manmade fibre. High sourcing costs and low profit margins are the top challenges to sourcing clothing made from recycled or other sustainable fibres.

There are growing calls for policy support for sourcing such clothing, such as preferential tariff rates and guidance on sustainability and recycling standards.

Read: Pakistan, China forge textile ties

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s textile industry has urged the government to announce a separate power tariff category for exporters, excluding cross-subsidies, stranded costs and other inefficiencies.

It called for ensuring adequate supply of re-gasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG)/ locally produced gas at regionally competitive prices and transition to zero emissions for exporting industries.

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Net zero greenhouse gas emissions are required across the value chain to continue exporting to western markets beyond 2030.

In addition, traceability across the textile and apparel value chain is increasingly sought by importers. This necessitates a mandatory and centralised track and trace system. The system should give priority to upstream sectors like cotton and ginning factories to ensure full compliance along with a fully operational National Compliance Centre to monitor environmental and social compliance.

The textile industry has sought exemption from sales tax for export-sector inputs to expedite processes and become competitive in global markets. It also called on the Federal Board of Revenue to process all FASTER refunds within the promised 72-hour time frame.

It demanded the refund of all pending dues in order to create a favourable and liquid business environment.

It floated the idea of setting up free commercial zones with simplified procedures to facilitate exports, reduce turnaround time and centralise export-related services. It asked for simplifying and digitalising all import and export procedures to enhance efficiency.

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The industry advocated the need for tax incentives and financing schemes like those provided by regional economies, which will result in some competitive advantage in relation to competitors like Vietnam, Bangladesh, India and Cambodia.

It emphasised that varieties of exportable surplus should be increased and textile and apparel exports diversified beyond cotton-based products.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 9th, 2023.

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Urea shortage hits farmers hard

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LAHORE:

Pakistan Kissan Ittehad (PKI) President Khalid Mahmood Khokhar has said that urea shortage is being faced by farmers as its consumption is estimated at 6.7 million tons per annum following an increase in plantation area and growing use of the commodity in cereal and cotton crops.

Talking to media on Friday, Khokhar mentioned that Pakistan required an additional 200,000 tons of urea as a buffer stock to keep prices stable.

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“Unfortunately, during 2023, the domestic production estimate might hardly touch 6.4 million tons versus demand for 6.7 million tons, thus, the farming community is experiencing a shortfall of around 500,000 tons (consumption deficit of 300,000 tons and buffer stock of 200,000 tons),” he said.

Drawing the attention of authorities, Khokhar claimed that full production capacity of the fertiliser industry was not being utilised, resulting in urea shortfall.

He called for finding a workable solution to avoid the recurrence of urea shortage in future to safeguard the farming community from middlemen’s exploitation.

ReadRising cultivaton costs hit farmers hard, says SAB chief

“At present, the industry is selling urea at different retail prices, ranging from Rs3,410 to Rs3,795 per bag, due to variable gas charges imposed on different urea manufacturers by the government,” he revealed, adding that the situation encouraged and provided an opportunity to middlemen to exploit farmers by charging around Rs1,000 per bag over and above the prescribed maximum retail prices of the manufacturers.

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“In a year, middlemen have pocketed more than Rs100 billion as ‘black money’ from farmers,” he claimed.

Talking about the current situation, the PKI president added that historically urea consumption during December had oscillated between 850,000 and 900,000 tons whereas total availability during the month would not be more than 650,000 tons. This clearly indicates a shortfall of 250,000 tons, which provides an opportunity for black marketing and exploitation of farmers.

“If we look at the demand-supply imbalance, the unavailability/ low pressure of gas for urea manufacturing plants has resulted in production loss of around 300,000 tons, which is one of the prime reasons for the shortfall,” he said.

Also, despite the ECC’s approval for import of 200,000 tons of urea, nothing has transpired yet.

The PKI president said that the situation could have been managed, had required gas been provided to urea plants round the year. Secondly, timely execution of import decisions would have further minimised the challenges.

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Published in The Express Tribune, December 9th, 2023.

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