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Fairly paying public sector racehorses

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KARACHI:

We’re beginning to see some silver linings. Initially, quick deals for port operations were signed with UAE companies. Lately, efforts for curbing speculation and illegal activities have brought USD Rs50 down to Rs280 in the open market.

Under SIFC, accelerated approach is observed where clear targets are given to portfolio holders with expected timelines for delivery and performance. The “whole of government” experiment is working.

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Amid all that, one must recall and appreciate the basic human instincts of any professional individual; what exactly am I working for and what do I get out of it (financially)?

Employees in large multinational companies – or sales-driven jobs – are paid performance bonuses, given employee stock option and fast-tracked into higher growth ladder depending on how much money they are bringing on table for sponsors (read: stakeholders/ taxpayers).

There should be no qualms when people around us get bonuses worth millions or tens of millions of rupees. It’s fair play. The more you perform, the quicker and better you are rewarded. Consequently, the motivation, energy levels, determination, team work and leadership skills are far beyond the threshold seen in “sarkari idaras”. What can we do to change it?

One: Let’s start with SOEs, the companies bleeding billions of dollars of already distressed taxpayers’ “halal” money, which would have been in far better shape had there been incentive for the top and middle clan to revitalise the operations and cut fat similar to what notoriously infamous capitalists global private equity groups do. They first strengthen the cow and then milk it more; win-win-win for owner, managers and society at large.

The idea is to bring efficiencies and add value to shareholders (taxpayers like you and me). Unfortunately, most of the heads are rolled without completing tenure, due to political influence and inability to bring change.

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Two: Blanket increment policy needs to change: It is vital for people doing their job by putting 10-12 hours a day to be rewarded with twice or thrice the amount of increment people get by showing up 4-6 hours to chitchat, move files and sip cups of tea. Let alone the ghost employees sitting at home.

The dismay in the competent mindset would eventually push them out of the system if they are not financially rewarded with variable incomes.

Three: Reward those at key positions: There should be lesser (cannot be zero) incentive for people to cheat the system.

Imagine a DISCO officer going to collect unpaid dues from people and ending up taking a fraction in his pocket and letting it be. If he were to be rewarded with X percentage of recovery, he would work towards plugging the holes.

Similarly, if a tax collector is rewarded with Rs3-10 million for widening the tax base by Rs500-1,000 million, he will still feel awarded and disincentivise under-the-table transactions.

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Four: Incentivise FDI and exports. Policymakers should be given clear monetary incentives for attracting foreign investment, domestic investment and enhancing exports. This is Pakistan’s make or break.

There should be more financial incentive for particular set of high-value industries, if any foreigner sets up plant for export-based or import-substituting industry.

A taxpayer would not mind rewarding an individual with $100K bonuses for bringing 1,000 jobs and growing exports annually by $50-100 million. Just imagine paying $4-8 million in interest only to borrow those dollars from global lenders. Think smarter.

Five: Compensate risk taking: Many senior competent public office holders are content, dismissive and reluctant to search out-of-the-box ideas for lack of personal financial reward and fear of undue accountability as well.

People already secured with extremely generous pension systems only worry about their post-retirement stress for not having to go to courts to defend themselves with their own “halal ki kamai”.

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If projects conceived years ago were launched on time (ML-I?), billions of rupees would have been saved every year. We have missed out uplifting tens of millions from poverty already due to the unfair system.

Six: Take good financial care of law enforcement agencies. (LEAs). LEAs play a critical part of controlling the law and order and provide sound footing to plant trees.

Reduction in crime, imposing penalties on violence, curtailing smuggling worth billions, seizing counterfeit, smuggled and illegal products should be financially rewarded with some modest fraction of the quantum of loss averted. If smuggling causes losses worth billions, pay millions to those who can and should stop it.

Conversely, doctors and nurses saving lives of many shouldn’t be given fixed salaries but compensated for the number of patients seen, treated and operated upon. Otherwise, the top talent is recruited by the private sector and fairly compensated, eventually increasing income inequality.

Critics would often revert by saying it is their job to do the job honestly, efficiently and wholeheartedly. Unfortunately, that model has failed for three quarters of the century and something is totally disconnected with the human mindset.

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Hire top global management consultants to refine the proposal or do better and most would offer similar solution. Country would not progress until explicit KPIs are given to policymakers with handsome compensation.

Some may also rebut that people who are used to the corrupt system would remain corrupt despite offering higher legitimate incentives. Well in that case, at least the fresh leg of policymakers may remain relevant, productive and choose to be part of the system.

We happily pay lawyers who save Rs100 million of liability with 5-10% of savings. We are also willing to pay our top sales guy bonuses worth 5-10 times in monthly salary if he’s providing benefits worth 50 times his salary. That is the only proven model that would work.

Last month, Pakistani cricketers secured apparently lucrative central contracts with PCB allocating 3% of the revenue. Excuse me? The guys bearing the heat, sweating their bodies, undergoing the stress and winning the glory are being paid peanuts compared to 26% revenue shared by BCCI to Indian cricketers and 27% paid to Australian ones.

Do not be surprised to see these countries winning the race since there is clear alignment of interest.

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The writer is an independent economic analyst

 

Published in The Express Tribune, October 23rd, 2023.

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‘Domestic debt restructuring will be painful’

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ISLAMABAD:

As the government maintains silence about its next move after declaring its debt “unsustainable,” former central bank governor Shahid Kardar stated on Monday that Pakistan would need to be in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to qualify for debt restructuring, and the process would be very painful.

Banks may need to take a hit on their principal loans, the central bank may need to relax prudent regulations to lower capital requirements, and high taxes might have to be imposed on cash withdrawals to prevent a run on the banks, according to Kardar.

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He delivered a presentation on the prospects of debt relief during the third Pakistan Prosperity Forum organised by the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME).

“Pakistan would have to be in the IMF programme to qualify for the debt restructuring,” said Kardar in response to a question.

The Ministry of Finance’s spokesperson did not respond to questions even after three days regarding whether the government has approached commercial banks for debt restructuring.

The servicing of external and domestic debts appears increasingly unsustainable, with Pakistan’s gross public debt now equal to 667% of revenues compared to the average of 214% for more than 20 comparators, according to Kardar. Kardar also pointed out that wasteful expenditures on low-priority and poorly designed projects have made the debt unsustainable. Prospects for recovery depend on progress in restoring debts to manageable levels.

“Debt restructuring is complex, there are no short-cut solutions, and the government would also face issues like foreign currency swap arrangements, deposits with the SBP, bonds with a large number of holders and covered by New York Laws,” said Kardar.

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The former governor said that Pakistan may also not qualify for the G-20 Common Framework for Debt Treatment, meant only for heavily indebted countries. Kardar stated that being lower-middle-income, Pakistan may also not get relief under the G-20 framework. He mentioned that bilateral creditors seem reluctant to suspend debt servicing payments due to difficult financial conditions, fearing credit rating downgrades leading to a loss of access to capital markets.

Domestic debt restructuring

Although the Ministry of Finance has not responded to a question on the future course of action, Kardar highlighted the prospects and challenges of domestic debt restructuring.

The former governor said that if Pakistan seeks the write-down of external debt, foreign lenders would also ask in return for similar adjustments in domestic debt. He predicted that banks, being the largest lenders to a bankrupt borrower, will have to bear the burden of some pain.

Read: FM warns of unsustainable debt

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Pakistan’s total public debt has already increased to Rs75 trillion or equal to three-fourths of its economy, with interest payments consuming the entire net federal income.

Kardar said that the “reduction or liquidation of domestic debt will require a gradual approach, involving a combination of significantly negative real interest rates, a moratorium and suspension of interest payments for some years, longer maturities, and some write-down of its face value.”

He said that a substantial reduction in the face value of the banks’ lending to the government would hit the capital base of banks, requiring loans to them at concessional rates. A short-term relaxation of the SBP’s prudential regulations on capital adequacy might be needed for domestic debt restructuring. The former governor suggested that, to prevent large cash withdrawals and a run on banks by depositors, the government might have to impose a hefty withholding tax. This would need to be supplemented by the government guaranteeing all deposits for a two to three-year period.

He said that one option could be a higher tax rate on bank incomes, but he stated that it was not a preferred option. Kardar also mentioned that there was not much space for external debt restructuring, as 48% of the debt is owed to multilaterals and is mostly at highly concessional rates. He added that China, which holds 31% of bilateral debt, was already rolling over repayments of $8 billion but was reluctant to accept losses on its lending portfolio.

The former central bank governor found many similarities between Pakistan and Sri Lanka, another country facing a severe debt crisis.

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He said that, like Pakistan, Sri Lanka also granted generous tax exemptions and booked a primary budget surplus in only three years since 1951. Sri Lanka, like Pakistan, financed its unsustainable fiscal deficits through foreign and domestic borrowings, resulting in its public debt jumping to 128% of GDP and interest payments being 72% of revenues.

For this fiscal year, the IMF has estimated Pakistan’s interest payments cost at 92% of the FBR’s revenues.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 28th, 2023.

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PSX crosses 60,000 points milestone

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Segregation of client assets is critical as brokers have been penalised for using client money illegally. PHOTO: AFP





KARACHI:

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) smoothly crossed the psychological barrier of 60,000 points during the early trading hours of Tuesday. 

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The gains came due to rich individuals and institutional investors making significant new investments in expectation of deep cuts in interest rates and the availability of stocks at low prices.

The PSX benchmark KSE-100 Index hit a new all-time high level of 60,745 points, rising by 1.56% or 934 points before mid-day from Monday’s close at 59,811 points. Penny stocks were the volume leader in the rally including textile, technology, food, bank and steel stocks.

Speaking to The Express Tribune, Arif Habib Limited Head of Research Tahir Abbas said: “The high expectation for a deep 7% cut in the key policy rate (interest rate) by the State Bank of Pakistan over the one-year agreed investors to take new possessions”.

“The central bank is expected to cut its key policy rate to 15% by December 2024 from record high 22% at present…ahead of a potential deceleration in inflation reading next year,” he added

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Abbas mentioned that the interest rate cut expectations have made rich individuals and institutional investors relocate their investments to the stock market from fixed-income instruments these days.

Topline Securities CEO Muhammad Sohail said in a comment on X (formerly Twitter) that the PSX is breaking records and the development is “still not surprising.”

The market has gained 50% in only five months to over 60,000 points from 40,000 points. “This is the fastest 50% rise in a few months after 2004,” he wrote.

Read PSX hits fresh record, nears 60k milestone

“When you have an unbelievably low valuation, a price-to-earnings ratio of 3-4%, such recovery is not at all surprising,” Sohail further commented.

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Abbas further said the listed companies have booked record high growth in profit of 46% in the first nine months ending September 2023 and added that “accordingly, dividend payments by them rose robustly by 42% in the same period. This is another factor that has attracted new investment at PSX”.

The market is expecting foreign currency inflows worth around $1.5-2 billion from multilateral creditors like the World Bank and Asian Development Bank soon after the IMF executive board approves the release of its second tranche of $700 million to Pakistan in December 2023.

This is another factor for the record-buying spree at PSX.

He anticipated the market reaching 75,000-80,000 points by the end of December 2024 considering all goes well including political stability in the country, economic growth, and global commodity prices remaining stable.

“The next six months seem stable at least”, he maintained.

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Completion of key projects increases water storage

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LAHORE:

The completion of eight ongoing water and hydropower projects by Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) is set to significantly enhance Pakistan’s water storage capacity and hydel power generation. The carry-over water capacity in the country will increase from 30 to 45 days, with an additional 9.7 MAF water storage.

 

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During a visit to WAPDA House, a delegation from PAF Air War College Karachi, led by Air Commodore Raja Imran Asghar, received a comprehensive briefing. The delegation comprised officers from Pakistan and allied nations.

Read: Water projects presented to Turkish consultants

The delegation learned about the climate change threats and water security challenges faced by Pakistan. WAPDA’s ongoing projects, such as Diamer Basha Dam, Mohmand Dam, and others, were highlighted as crucial for the water, food, and energy security of the country.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 28th, 2023.

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